I was feeling elated.. had a feeling that I am right Again.. Not that I am err super duper proud or what.. its just that its a nice feeling...Now.. now..now..the recent newspaper reports came not a surprise... I had been telling people from the beginning of the year.. that the then property fever will not only last but will cumulate into an en-bloc fever. Had also foreseen that the recent developments from 2008 to 2012 will force the demand on public housing causing the property prices to go up... So what now?
Ok.. back to the basics.. its indeed very important to align one's strategy with the macro-economic indicators.. whether be it government initiatives in terms of massive investments, or be it world events.. All this has an impact on tiny Singapore... The CPF drama should not be a problem either. The real issue.. is whether tiny Singapore is over-heating.. How so??
Well, the Singapore economy continued to power ahead in this third quarter...From MTI figures.. oops.. MTI refers to the Ministry Of Trade and Industry, the economy grew at a sterling 9.4 percent year-on-year.. last quarter. This is higher than the figures given by most analyst.. at a median range of 7.8 percent.
The performance was fuelled by a few sectors: the biomedical and the transport industry giving the strongest push.
While many are keeping an eye at the rising prices, some analyst believe that the risks of the economy overheating are low - at least for now. I think so too. The asset price, inflation and wage increase in the last two quarters seem to indicate some forms of overheating.
Wage costs, office rents and residential rents have all also reported a rise. For one, our growth is not the export-oriented kind, since the figures of manufacturing dipped alittle. Add that to the fear of the US sub-prime problem. Nevertheless, even if a bubble is building, I suspect it can go even further! The level of the private residential property index is still more than 10 percent lower than in 96! This figure could be checked with URA data, again from the tool box on top!
Anyhow, adjusting for income growth, property is not as expensive as 96 too! Besides the government is cautious of the economy going back to the 96 property bubble and should take some cooling actions before then. It is to be expected that should the present trend continue, there would be more cooling measures. But I highly doubt that it would cause a dent.. so the economy should be veering on the upward rise.. Some warning,, though... don't put all your eggs in one basket.. !! One might need just need it for a rainy day! Again... we might never know if
there is an impending war...waiting to happen..if that happens, all this prediction will just be crap.
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